Texas Holdem Chances Of Winning

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Poker is one of the greatest games on earth. The combination of skill and luck, the psychological element, and the fact you can make money from it all help with its popularity. But in order for you to make money from poker, you need to learn how to win at poker, which is actually easier than some would suggest.

Texas Holdem Wsop

Learning how to win at Texas hold’em can be broken down into four categories. (It can probably be broken down into many more, but for the sake of simplicity we’ve opted for four.) Those categories are:

  • Learn the basics
  • Learn advanced concepts
  • Apply your new skills
  • Continue the learning process

Learn the Basics

It should go without saying that in order to discover how to win in poker, you need to learn the basics of the game. When I first started playing poker, I didn’t know anything about the game, even including what hands beat what. You’d be surprised at how many people sit in a real money game and expect to win at Texas Holdem poker without even a clear understanding of the rules and other basics.

Those basics not only include knowing the poker hand rankings so you know what beats what, but also the various positions at the poker table and how they affect your strategy, pot odds and implied pot odds, and the importance of following solid bankroll management rules. Once armed with this information, you’re ready to add a few more strings to your bow and move one step closer to discovering how to be a winning player.

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Learn Advanced Concepts

The next stage in your quest to win at poker every time is to learn some of the more advanced concepts. Fill your mind by studying such aspects of the game as three- and four-betting, as well as how to play against the various different player types — e.g., tight-aggressive, loose-aggressive, and loose-passive — because each opponent type needs to be approached with a different strategy.

One advanced concept became public knowledge in the mid-1990s when David Sklansky penned The Theory of Poker. It is in this book that you will find Sklansky’s thoughts on what he calls “The Fundamental Theorem of Poker,” which reads:

“Every time you play a hand differently from the way you would have played it if you could see all your opponents’ cards, they gain; and every time you play your hand the same way you would have played it if you could see all their cards, they lose. Conversely, every time opponents play their hands differently from the way they would have if they could see all your cards, you gain; and every time they play their hands the same way they would have played if they could see all your cards, you lose.”

This text may seem long winded, but the idea being expressed is quite simple. What the theorem is essentially saying is that the correct decision to make in any given poker situation is one that has the largest expected value, or “EV” as it is commonly abbreviated. If you were able to see your opponents’ cards, you would be able to calculate the mathematically correct decision and would win at poker every time!

Obviously, it is not possible to calculate the correct decision to mathematical certainty as poker is a game played with incomplete information. But you can use all of the available information presented to you to make a decision that would yield long-term positive results — decisions that are +EV.

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Apply Your Skills

While it is practically impossible to learn how to win at poker every time in a monetary sense, due to the luck factor, by making decisions that are +EV you actually are winning every time you play poker, at least in the long term.

As a simplified example, imagine you are heads-up with an opponent in a hand where the board reads . You hold and your opponent has accidently revealed , so you know that you need to complete your flush to win the hand. There is $100 in the pot and for some reason you opponent decides to only bet $20. In this situation you should snap-call, because even if the river is not a spade you actually gain in the long run.

Why is this the case? Because the pot odds you’re receiving are 5-to-1 (calling $20 to win $100) yet your chance of hitting your flush with one card to come is about 4.1-to-1. As the pot odds are greater than the odds of hitting the hand, you actually make money in the long run even if your flush misses! That is to say, if you faced the same choice many, many times and always chose correctly, you do stand to come out ahead thanks to your consistently “+EV” decisions. And that folks, is how to win at poker every time!

Of course, the game is more complex than that overly simply example suggests. But in essence the idea still holds. The key to how to win at poker is to make more +EV decisions that –EV ones, and then play enough for the math to make the results run true. Sadly, this can take longer than you could imagine, but it does happen eventually!

Continue the Learning Process

It may seem to an outsider that the best poker players have discovered the secret of how to win at poker every time, yet this simply isn’t true. What is true is those at the top of the pile are extremely skilled poker players, but they are also some of the hardest working people in the industry, constantly working on their game and trying to improve.

One way to improve your own game vastly and increase your chances of learning to win at Texas Hold’em is to play around with different scenarios to see what the mathematically correct decision would be. Load up the PokerNews Odds Calculator and look at how much equity your hand has on different boards and against different possible hands for your opponents. There are other tools out there that allow you to see how your exact hand fares against a possible range of hands, too.

Knowing this information and being able to draw upon it while in the heat of a hand could be the difference between winning or losing at poker or losing. Always look to extract as much value as mathematically possible, if you want always to win at poker.

This article was originally published on Jan. 15, 2016. Last update: Jun. 8, 2019.

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While almost all of the television coverage of Texas holdem over the past 20
years has been of tournament play, millions of dollars are won and lost in cash
games every day. Some players are able to play a profitable game in both
tournaments and cash games, while others concentrate on one form.

General Texas holdem poker strategy is the same for both games, but some of
the specific strategies have to be different if you want to win as much as
possible. This page covers Texas holdem cash game strategy and focuses on the
most important areas of strategy needed to maximize your chances of winning in
the long run while playing ring games.

Because this is a strategy page it’s written for players who already
understand the rules and know how to play Texas holdem. If you’re not sure about
how to play or the rules see the pages in this section dealing with these
things. You should also play a few hands before trying to digest the details on
this page. You can join a friendly home game or play for free online.

General Holdem Strategy

This section covers important cash game strategies for both limit and no
limit Texas holdem. After all of the sub sections in this section you can find
specific strategy advice for limit and no limit games.

Position

Cash game Texas holdem is won and lost with a strict consideration of your
position at the table. Over the long run you play each position roughly the same
number of times and you’ll have the same hands in each position the same number
of times if you play long enough.

This means you have no excuse to play poor hands out of position. Remain
patient and wait for the correct hands in each position. By playing out of
position you give your opponents a large advantage.

You should only play a few hands from early position and only a few more from
middle position. The majority of hands you play in holdem should be from late
position. The blinds are in early position so you shouldn’t play many hands from
the blinds, just like early position. Blind play is discussed more below.

Table Selection

Unlike in a tournament, in cash games you can choose which table you want to
play. Focus on finding games that have players who aren’t as good as you. Leave
your ego at the door and take advantage of weak players.

You won’t find any glory playing against better players. If you only play
against worse players you’ll be a winning player. This logic can’t be argued,
yet most players ignore the competition when choosing a table.

Even if you have to build your own private games or wait for a seat at a good
table you’ll be far better off in the long run by choosing the best place to
play. Seek out players who aren’t very good who have money and play whenever and
wherever they’re willing to play.

Many players assume poor players with money don’t want to play against better
players because it doesn’t make sense to them. But history is filled with people
with money who want to play against the best just for the chance to beat them
from time to time.

Do a little research about the world’s best backgammon players and how some
of them travel all over the world to play against rich people. Backgammon, like
poker, is won in the long run by the best players, but in the short term anyone
can win. The thrill of beating the better player, even if it’s just
occasionally, is more than worth the long term cost to some people.

In addition, a great deal of money to you may mean nothing to someone else.
You may be surprised at how much some people spend on entertainment. $100,000 to
a billionaire is about the same as $10 to most of us.

Some Texas holdem players seek these types of people and go out of their way
to engage them in a game as often as possible. They’re going to play against
someone, so it might as well be you. Always be on the lookout for opportunities.

Bankroll Management

No matter how good you play Texas holdem you’ll go through ups and downs.
Even the best players lose sometimes and can even have extended losing streaks.
The nature of the game and dealing with incomplete information and odds means
that sometimes the cards go against you.

In the long run things even out but you have to have enough bankroll to
survive the low points so you can make maximum profit when the cards go your
way.

This has nothing to do with luck. Even pocket aces lose sometimes. They win
most of the time but your opponent will draw out on you from time to time. Even
if they only have one out on the river they’ll win one out of every 46 hands.

The common recommendations for the size of your bankroll suggest 200 to 300
big blinds for limit players and 20 to 30 buy in’s for no limit players. We
suggest doubling these suggestions until you have a long winning track record.

You don’t ever want to be thinking about your bankroll while playing. By
having an extra large bankroll you never have to worry about it while you’re
involved in a game.

Tilt

When you go on tilt you start making decisions based on emotion instead of
logic. One of your main jobs as a cash game player is to avoid this at all
costs. Every time you make a decision based on emotion instead of solid
information and positive expectation you cost yourself money.

If you make a single poor decision in every playing session based on emotion
it can make you a losing player instead of a winning player. Always be aware of
your emotions and stop playing immediately if they start changing the way you
play.

Tells

In some ways tells are overrated, but in others they can be quite costly or
profitable. Most players aren’t good enough to pick up on tells, so in most
games they aren’t important.

But in big situations and pots they can be the difference between winning and
losing a great deal of money.

The most important thing is to make sure you aren’t giving any tells. Focus
on avoiding giving tells until you never give any. Then you can start looking
for tells in your opponent’s play. Most players work on this backwards, and it
ends up costing them money.

Psychology

Psychology covers a wide range of things at the poker table, including some
of the things in the other sections including tilt, mindset, and health. You
need to always be learning about the game and your opponents and keep the
mindset that you’re open to improving your game.

Don’t ever reach the point where you think you’ve mastered the game of Texas
holdem. The best players are always looking for another small edge and open to
learning new ways to win.

They also learn how to judge their psychological state so they can determine
when they should and shouldn’t be playing. Try to always be aware of your
psychological state when playing and when thinking about poker.

One area that hurts new players is playing scared. You can’t be a long term
winner if you play scared.

You have to get enough experience to learn how to determine positive
expectation and use it to your advantage. The opposite of this is how most
players operate. They focus on immediate results to shape how they play.

If they call with a gut shot straight draw without the proper pot odds and
win they think they made the correct play. If they make the same play again and
lose they think they were unlucky.

When you know the most profitable long run play is the one you made, no
matter the immediate outcome, you can continue making the best play in the
future. You need to make the best play every time and ignore the results.

The fact is if you make the best playing decisions you’ll be profitable in
the long run.

Mindset

Your mindset plays such a huge role in everything you do in life that it’s no
wonder you need to work on your mindset in order to be the best Texas holdem
player you can be. Only by making the commitment to be the best cash game player
you can be do you have the chance to be a truly great player.

Entire books have been written about mindset, but it boils down to one simple
fact.

You either make the commitment to be the best you can be and do whatever is
require to follow through or you don’t. Nothing else matters at the end of the
day. Ask yourself the following question and answer truthfully.

Texas holdem odds preflop chances of winning

Are you doing everything in your power to be the best cash game Texas holdem
player you can be?

If the answer is no you can either accept the fact that you’ll never be the
best player you can be or you can make changes.

Know the Numbers

The best Texas holdem cash game players in the world understand the numbers
involved with the game. They understand outs, odds, percentages, positive
expectation, and every other mathematical part of the game.

This doesn’t mean they can instantly determine everything to 100% accuracy,
but it does mean they know close enough to make the best play in almost every
situation.

If you don’t know and use the math involve with making positive expectation
plays you need to immediately start improving that part of your game. Start with
the simple steps of learning and using outs and pot odds. Once you’ve mastered
them keep building on your knowledge.

When you play a particular hand or situation remember what you learned about
the math and use it in the future. If you’re not sure you made the correct play
make a note and do the math after you’re finished playing the situation.

Health and Rest

One of the most overlooked areas of a player’s Texas holdem strategy is their
health and rest. Most players start playing when they’re relatively young and
think they can go forever on little rest, eating a terrible diet, and never
exercising.

We just discussed the importance of your mind and the psychology behind a
winning Texas holdem cash game player. In order for you to operate at the
maximum efficiency with your mind your body has to be rested and in good enough
health that it doesn’t take away from your mind while playing.

While you are the only one that can accurately judge your health and how
rested you are, you have to take a realistic look at your life and make any
adjustments needed in order to maximize your ability to win.

  • You don’t need to lose weight to get healthier; you need to lose weight
    because it gives you the best chance to win. You can play longer at top
    awareness when you’re healthier.
  • You don’t need to get enough rest because it’s the best for your body;
    you need to get enough rest because it’s the best for your holdem game.
  • You don’t need to exercise so you can live longer; you need to exercise
    because it helps you be more profitable at the poker table.
  • You don’t need to improve your diet, eat healthier foods, and watch
    every piece of food you ingest because it makes you feel better; you do it
    because it makes you a better player.

Once you make the commitment to be a winning Texas holdem cash game player
you do whatever it takes to get better, and that includes taking care of your
body.

Limit Texas Holdem Cash Game Strategy

To be a winning long term limit Texas holdem cash game player you have to
approach the game as a grinder. You constantly have to be aware of situations
where you can play with positive expectation.

This starts with entering hands with better starting hands than your
opponents, determining your outs and chances to win on every street, using pot
odds to determine if staying in a hand is profitable, and always raising with
your best hands in order to get as much money into the pot as possible when
you’re the favorite.

You don’t have the opportunity to put a great deal of pressure on your
opponents and you can’t get a bunch of cash in the pot at one time. So you have
to focus on controlling the size of the pot starting before the flop.

When you have a strong hand that’s likely to win at the showdown at the end
you need to bet and raise at every opportunity. On the other hand, if you’re
drawing to a better hand you need to minimize the amount of money in the pot
until you hit your hand while keeping the pot odds in your favor.

Focus on winning one to two big bets per hour on average and avoiding playing
in situations with negative expectation.

Much of being a winning limit cash game player boils down to mathematics. The
size of the bets are strictly controlled by the rules so you need to strengthen
your ability to play based on the numbers. With a set number of possible cards
to improve your hand you can always make rough determinations of your chances to
improve.

When you play your best starting hands like pocket aces, kings, and queens in
no limit games you can sometimes play them passively early and trap aggressive
players. But in a limit game you have to raise with them from the beginning.

This thins the field and builds the pot. You don’t want three or more
opponents when you have a big pocket pair because the odd are that one of them
will flop something to help them. Against one or two opponents these hands hold
up well.

Just to be clear, you’ll still play with positive expectation in the long run
with high pocket pair against multiple opponents, but your variance will be much
larger.

You also need to avoid playing as many speculative hands in limit Texas
holdem because they don’t win often enough to be profitable. The main reason for
this is because you can’t bet big when you hit your hand.

Speculative hands are small pocket pairs and suited connectors that don’t
have face cards.

Outside of high pocket pairs, most of your starting hands need to be face
cards, preferably suited ones.

We discussed position above in the general strategy section, but winning
limit cash game players always use position to their advantage. The ability to
save a single bet per hour by playing in position can be the sole difference
between a winning and losing player.

Here’s an Example

If you play 10 / 20 limit Texas holdem and are a break even player, if you
can learn to save a single bet by using your position per hour you’ve instantly
started winning around $15 per hour. This is the average between the best on the
first two streets and last two streets.

If you’re currently winning one big bet per hour, or $20, and can save a bet
per hour you’re now winning $35 per hour on average. By only playing 40 hours
per week you’ve improved your weekly profit from $800 to $1,400. This is over
$30,000 extra per year, and this is only playing at the 10 / 20 tables. If
you’re able to maintain your winning percentages and move up to 20 / 40 you’re
making a good living playing poker.

At the end of the day, if you base all of your limit playing decisions on
increasing your hourly win rate you’ll be making the correct decisions in every
part of your game.

Another area that limit holdem players need to be aware of is how much you
tip. We don’t tell players how much to tip, or even if they have to tip, but you
need to be aware of how much tips cost you every hour.

We tip for good service. If a dealer does a good job of controlling the game
and keeps it moving along we suggest tipping a reasonable amount when you win a
hand. A tip of $1 per winning hand is usually reasonable for good service. If a
dealer does a good job an receives a $1 per hand they make somewhere between $20
and $30 per hour in tips.

But every dollar you tip comes straight of your bottom line. So if you tip
$5 per hour you win $5 less per hour.

The last area that many limit cash game players have a leak is their blind
play. Too many players automatically make the half bet call from the small blind
in an un raised pot. Every time you put a half bet into the pot with a weak hand
you’re basically giving away money.

If you play a 10 / 20 game from the small blind three times an hour and
blindly make the completion bet it costs you an extra $15 per hour. This can
completely wipe out your profit or at the very least cut it by quite a bit.

Though it may seem like a smart play because you get to see the flop for a
half bet, you need to consider it strictly from a pot odds point of view.

Here’s an Example

In a 10 / 20 limit Texas holdem game you’re in the
small blind against three other players and have a pair of fours. The pot is un
raised so you have to put an additional $5 in and the pot has $35 in it. So the
pot odds are 7 to 1.

This means to break even you have to win the pot at least one out of every
seven times. In addition, the rake is going to reduce the value of the pot. You
only hit a set on the flop roughly one out of every eight times. This is clearly
a position where the pot odds aren’t correct to continue.

Of course the argument can be made that when you hit a set on the flop it’ll
be hidden and you may be able to get a few extra bets after the flop. But this
is balance out by the times when you hit a set and still end up losing the hand.

But most players automatically make this call from the small blind every
single time. Even worse, many players will call a single raise from the small
blind with this hand. This is a terrible play and many players don’t even
realize it.

In a no limit game, depending on the stack sizes involved and your opponent’s
playing abilities, this may be a profitable play. But in a limit game it’s a
losing play.

Using the same example above but with a single raise, the pot has $65 in it
and you have to put another $15 in. The pot odds now are 4.33 to 1.

A good rule of thumb is if you’re in the small blind and the hand isn’t good
enough to enter the pot voluntarily from middle position you should fold. Some
players go so far as to fold anything they wouldn’t play from early position, or
fold anything that isn’t good enough to raise with.

From the big blind in an un raised pot you get to see the flop for free.

This is good, but you still have to get away from poor hands after the flop.
If the pot odds aren’t favorable you have to get out of the hand.

Flopping a pair out of the big blind, even if it’s top pair, usually still
leaves you behind in the hand if you started with a poor r average hand.

When the pot is raised and you’re in the big blind you need to follow the
same advice as in an un raised pot from the small blind. You’re still going to
be playing the entire hand out of position so fold all of your poor and average
hands.

Sometimes the players in late position will figure out you fold most hands
from the blinds and start trying to steal your blinds. Don’t let emotion get
involved when dealing with this. Keep folding your poor hands and wait until you
have a good hand and win back your blinds at that time.

You won’t find any honor in the misguided notion that you need to defend your
blinds. The blinds are simply part of the cost of playing. Once you put them in
the pot they don’t belong to you anymore.

Focus on your blind play and figure out how to add an additional bet per hour
to your winnings by saving the money by folding your blinds more often.

If you can figure out how to save a bet using position and by playing better
in the blinds you stand a good chance of adding two bets per hour to your
profits. This goes a long way to separating the winners from the losers in limit
Texas holdem cash games.

No Limit Holdem Cash Strategy

Some players argue that the best Texas holdem cash game players are at the no
limit tables so if you want to be the best you need to be playing no limit.
While no one knows if this statement is true, playing against the best players
isn’t a winning player’s goal. Your goal should always be to win the most money.

So if the best players are at the no limit tables shouldn’t the limit tables
be softer and easier to win at? The truth is you can find soft limit tables and
soft no limit tables if you know what to look for and are familiar with some of
the players seated at the table. We covered limit games in the last section, so
here are some strategy tips for no limit Texas holdem cash games.

Limit games have a set betting limit so you can only win or lose a set amount
on any given hand. No limit tables have rules that make it possible to win or
lose an amount equal to your entire stack at the beginning of the hand.

This can be frightening for inexperience players, and it can cost poor
players a great deal of money in a short amount of time. But if you learn how to
play well, know how to use pot odds, outs, and understand positive expectation,
and have the proper bankroll the no limit tables offer a chance to win a great
deal of money.

But just like other forms of poker, no matter how good you play you’ll
experience ups and downs. Sometimes your opponent who called your all in with a
four out draw will hit their hand. In the long run you want your opponent to
make bad calls because that’s how you make money, but it can be painful in the
short term.

In the section above about tilt and the one about psychology we discussed
making plays base on facts, not emotions, and we talked about controlling your
emotions. The no limit Texas holdem tables test your emotions all of the time.
They probably put you in emotional danger more than any other form of poker.

So one of the most important things to remember is you’re playing one long
game that doesn’t end until you die. In the long run your strong hand is going
to hold up the right percentage of the time, even if you have been drawn out on
the last three hands.

You can play a wide range of styles and still be a winning no limit player,
but until you become a consistent winner you should lean toward playing tight
and aggressive. Tight starting hand requirements mean you enter the pot with a
better hand than your opponents most of the time, which gives you a better
chance to win.

When you play aggressively it forces your opponents to make more decisions.
The more decisions they have to make the higher their chances of making a
mistake. Every time an opponent makes a mistake it helps you win more money.

When you’re playing no limit Texas holdem you have to always have your head
in the game and be paying attention. Missing even the smallest detail can lead
to a loss of your entire stack. If you’re not willing to pay attention the
entire time you’re playing you probably shouldn’t play.

See who raises from each position and the range of hands they raise with. Pay
attention to who limps with big hands or tries to slow play their best hands.
Pay attention and remember the players who chase draws when they aren’t
receiving the proper pot odds to continue.

The more you can learn about your opponents the better your chances to win in
the long run. Even though no limit makes it possible to win and lose large
amounts in a short period of time, the truth is that the game is still a long
grind that requires winning players to make the best plats more often than not.
Use every possible advantage you can find, including the playing tendencies of
your opponents to help you in this life long grind.

One of the things that the best Texas holdem players live by, whether they
consciously think about it or not, is maximizing the amount they win when they
win and minimizing the amount they lose when they lose. This is more important
while playing no limit Texas holdem than in any other form of poker.

You can win less than one hand per hour on average and still end a playing
session as a winner. This doesn’t happen often, but it’s possible.

Here’s an Example

You play a six hour session at a no limit Texas holdem
cash table. The blinds are 5 / 10 and the average stack size is $1,000. The
average number of players during the session is nine and 25 hands are dealt per
hour. This means that you play the small and big blind roughly 17 times during
the session. If you fold all of your blinds and don’t voluntarily enter the pot
any other times your cost to sit at the table for six hours is $255.

If you received pocket aces once during the six hours and was able to get a
single opponent all in and win you’d still finish the session up around $700
based on the average chip stacks.

While this is an extreme example, it perfectly illustrates the point that you
don’t have to play many hands to be a winning holdem player as long as you
maximize the profits from the hands you do play.

This also shows that you’re probably playing far too many hands. Of course
you need to play a few more than one hand per six hours or everyone will fold
when you do play, at least if they’re paying attention. But you can probably be
profitable playing only a couple hands per hour, instead of the dozen or more
per hour that many players play.

How To Play Texas Holdem Poker

Continuing with the idea of maximizing your wins and minimizing your losses,
you need to learn when you’re behind in a hand and when you’re leading in a
hand. When you’re behind you need to minimize the amount you put into the pot.
Smart opponents try to make you put as much as possible in the pot when you’re
chasing, so there’s a constant battle between the two sides.

Of course this isn’t simple, but it’s important enough that you need to
dedicate a great deal of time to improving this part of your game. The way to do
this is by using the other strategies on this page to improve your game.

Ultimate Texas Holdem Practice

The more you play and the more you learn the better you’ll get at seeing when
you’re ahead and behind and how to shape the structure of each hand.

If you’ve played at many no limit holdem tables you’ve seen and heard players
complaining about bad players. They complain when a player makes a bad call and
draws out on them and they complain when bad players enter that pot with a bad
starting hand and flop a winner.

It seems as if they’re trying to run the bad players off or would rather play
against players who don’t make dumb plays.

You want as many bad players at the table as possible because they help you
make money. Playing against a bunch of bad players will threaten to be
aggravating at times, but in the long run remember that you make money every
time an opponent makes a mistake.

Texas Holdem Vegas World

Even if a player makes a bad play and ends up with a large stack, they’ll
eventually give it all back to other players by making more mistakes. Your job
is to put yourself in position where you can benefit when they make more bad
plays and give the money back.

So the next time you get beat by a bad player and want to start abusing them,
instead remember that you need them in the game an simply tell them nice hand
with a smile on your face.

Play Free Texas Holdem Poker

Conclusion

Becoming a winning Texas holdem cash game player requires mastering a wide
range of strategies. We’ve covered the important areas above, so you need to
start working on any weak areas immediately.

Play

Texas Holdem Practice

If you’re just starting your Texas holdem career you may be feeling a bit
overwhelmed at this point. The way to get started if you need to work on a
number of different strategies is pick one and start working on it. The key is
to get started as soon as possible.

Once you work on one area and feel comfortable add another area. Keep working
on new strategies and you’ll quickly see an improvement in your game.

Play Texas Holdem For Fun

For beginning players you should start playing limit Texas holdem and become
a winning player before attempting to play no limit. Any mistake you make is
magnified when you’re playing no limit so while you’re learning to be a winning
player it’s best to protect your bankroll as much as possible.